The excitement of March Madness is here; it always comes with upsets, buzzer-beaters, and Cinderella stories. For college hoops fans, a season’s worth of chaos is now condensed into two tournaments for the biggest teams in the country. To help with your bracket, The Pharcyde will provide six teams that could make an impressive run in March due to the stats.
Bruce Pearl’s team has become a consistent powerhouse; this year, the Auburn Tigers have all the pieces to make a deep run. They boast a strong defense, a high-tempo offense, and a mix of experienced upper-level players and dynamic young talent.
Auburn’s offense has been dominant throughout the season, with the best offensive rating on kempom.com. Their studded lineup stars power forward Johni Broome and point guard Tahaad Pettiford. The assist-to-turnover ratio ranks third in the country, a common factor among past champions, as 15 out of the past 17 champions are in the top four. Another impressive stat is their blocks per game, the best in the nation at 6.5.
If Auburn can stay hot from beyond the arc and control the tempo, they have the potential to make noise in the later rounds.
“Auburn does look good. They are so efficient and such an electric team. With all of the hype and thrill that March brings, Auburn will fit in and ride the wave to the championship,” junior Thomas Godino stated eagerly.
Duke is synonymous with March Madness success, and this year’s team has the talent to continue that legacy. Under head coach Jon Scheyer, the Blue Devils have leaned on a mix of five-star freshman stars and returning veterans.
Projected number one overall pick in this year’s upcoming NBA Draft, Cooper Flagg looks to lead this team in March along with projected lottery picks Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel.
“This team is so deep. The starting lineup is stacked, with Flagg and Knueppel as the primary scorers. Getting to the bench, Isaiah Evans’s point-shot-making and Caleb Foster’s unreal. If they were anywhere else, they would be solid starters. On top of that, Scheyer’s scheme of fast ball movement and penetration on defense is a scary threat for other teams,” junior Stephen Cecil explained.
Duke is at the top of almost every stat sheet. A consistent factor for many of the past champions is to be in the country’s top five in offensive and defensive ratings, and the Blue Devils are alone in that category. With a 90.3 winning percentage going into the conference tournaments, the Blue Devils are looking ready for March.
Duke’s path to a deep tournament run depends on its ability to close out tight games, which it has continuously worked on throughout the season.
Penny Hardaway’s Memphis squad is one of the country’s most athletic and fast-paced teams. With a defense that creates turnovers and an offense that thrives in transition, they are a nightmare for slower teams.
AAC player of the year PJ Haggerty is having a phenomenal season, being fifth in the country for points per game (21.2) and the leading scorer on this hot Memphis squad.
Having high stats percentages is crucial for success in the tournament and surviving tough teams. Consistency from anywhere is critical, and Memphis’s eighth-place three-point percentage ranking in the country boosts the Tigers’ confidence heading into the tournament.
“Memphis has a lot of players I like. I have been watching them the entire season and went to their game at FAU. Tyreese Hunter, [PJ] Haggerty, and Dain Dainja are the stars of this team. Hunter’s consistency around the court, Haggerty’s shot-making, and Dainja’s ‘Dainja Zone’ defensive abilities are spectacular. Memphis is lucky to have those three players,” sophomore Ty Cohen noted.
If Memphis can limit turnovers, get Haggerty in ISO situations, and hit free throws, the Tigers’ limit is the Sweet 16.
Under Greg Gard, the Wisconsin Badgers have been a steady and disciplined team. Using their slow and methodical style to frustrate opponents and throw them off their game is about what March is about: a change of scenery. They rely on tough defense and efficient shooting to wear teams down.
Before the season, the Badgers lost some key players but acquired AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn. The Badger’s wing-heavy offense remains highly productive, led by guard John Tonje, who finished second in Big Ten Player of the Year voting. Sophomore breakout star John Blackwell also made a significant impact by helping the team secure 13 conference wins. The versatility of this team is key to success in March.
When looking at the stat sheets, I immediately shot to one crucial stat: free throw percentage. They lead other teams in the country by a full two percentage points, with 83.58%. It is essential to hit those shots in the second half’s later minutes. It determines a win or a loss in those situations.
Junior Johnny Havlicek is on the Benjamin Basketball team and emphasizes the importance of making your free throws.
“It shifts the game. You need to make them to win, no doubt. When the opposing team starts fouling when you are up four points with 15 seconds left on the clock, it’s the most important idea to block out the noise and make that one easy shot for one point added to the scoreboard,” Havlicek highlights. “Not only relating to March Madness but just to every basketball game. I think it’s the most important shot to knock down but the hardest to master.”
If Wisconsin can dictate the tempo and knock down timely threes, they could be a powerhouse in the tournament.
A little Cinderella pick here: Northern Colorado. The Bears have been a force in the Big Sky Conference and have all the ingredients for a classic Cinderella run in March.
The Bears are a consistent team. They are second in the country for effective field goal percentage (.583) and the best for field goal percentage (50.89), but it doesn’t stop there. It gets better on the defense; it is second in the country for opponent assists per game (.378) and third for defensive rebounding (79.3%).
Stephen Cecil is the Sports Analytics Club co-president and loves how stats dictate a tournament like March Madness.
“Stats matter with a team in any sport, but I feel like it is different in basketball. If a team is good, then they will play well. Most teams don’t have ‘off’ days when playing college basketball if they are top-tier, so the stats matter. It shows where teams struggle, where to attack, and where teams are good,” Cecil recalled.
If the Bears get hot from deep, they could shock a higher seed in the first round and advance further than expected in the tournament.
The University of San Diego has been among the top teams in the Big West Conference, showcasing efficient scoring, disciplined defense, and strong perimeter play. While they may not have the national recognition of more prominent programs, the Tritons have proven they can compete and could be a dangerous first-round opponent if they make the tournament.
They are, in fact, a very defensive team. They rank third in the country for steals per game (9.8) and fourth for turnovers. But they aren’t only defensive. They are sixth in the country for score margin (15.0) and fifth for assists per turnover (1.668).
Whether they make a deep run or fall short, the Tritons’ rise in college basketball is worth watching. Their 28-4 record will only be a positive for the college basketball season. If they can continue their momentum, this could be the start of something special for the Tritons program.
Senior Wes Labanz loves March Madness and the idea of upsets.
“The upsets in March are the main idea of the tournament, I feel. It makes the tournament special and a good time for viewers to sit at the edge of their seats at the crazy games. Anything is possible in March,” Labanz called.
March Madness is all about the unexpected, so whether you’re filling out a bracket or just watching the chaos, keep an eye out for these teams; you may witness history in the making.
